The Digital Civilizations Interviews

The risk of an energy shortage

Our current energy model relies almost exclusively on the use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas, none of which we have in great enough quantities to support the increased global demand linked to the population explosion, globalisation, and population growth in developing countries. These countries make up one third of the human race, and in just one generation’s time, will, on the whole, consume more than developed countries.

Consommation énergétique en million de tonnes d’équivalent pétrole

Réserves énergétiques mondiales
Pétrole : 40 années de consommation au rythme actuel (réserves prouvées).
Charbon : 2 siècles de consommation au rythme actuel (réserves prouvées et probables).
Gaz naturel : 40 années d’extraction au rythme actuel.
Sources : Codigaz, United States Geological Survey, BP Statistical Review, Oil and Gas Journal. 2003

As these countries grow, the number of personal vehicles is likely to increase from today’s 700 million to 1.2 billion in 2020 and 1.4-1.5 million in 2030. It is estimated that more than 2.2 million people will join existing urban populations. For developing countries, this is akin to constructing a city with a population of one million every week between now and 2050. Urban planning will pay a decisive role in determining the amount of energy consumed and the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted in cities.

On the other hand, the increase in travel, notably air travel, produced by globalisation will feed this general increase in oil consumption. In 20 years time, the risk is not that we will have exhausted our resources, but that we will have exceeded our ability to produce and use (extract, convert, and distribute) our fossil fuels. Anxieties about this ability have already caused the price of oil to reach unprecedented highs. These prices make it profitable to exploit new deposits, such as tar sands and deep sea drilling, refine low-quality oil and go back to using some forms of energy that we have abandoned, such as coal, thus increasing the number of available workable reserves. But even under these conditions, it is likely that global demand will exceed supply: this is what is meant by the term “peak oil”. At levels such as these, even price increases will no longer be able to match supply to demand, and many economies will suffer from a shortage.

For the meantime, we should get used to an economy in which oil consumption is an expensive habit: figures of $150 or even $250 a barrel are being discussed.